DAYTON — Good morning, Miami Valley! Meteorologist Nick Dunn here to break down a very busy forecast today into Monday! You may have heard the term “bomb cyclone” or “bombogenesis” in the past couple days. While this term can be rather scary to see, there is only a couple things that it actually means.
All you need to know about the term bombogenesis is that it means a low pressure system is rapidly intensifying. We could find pressure dropping by 24 millibars in 24 hours. If that happens, then it officially has “bombed out” meteorologically. This is most common in Winter and has happened before!
For us, we get the warm side to start with! Highs near or breaking record levels today in the middle 60s is likely. A Level 1 (Marginal) Risk for severe storms exists this evening from 8PM-1AM. I still do not think this is a widespread event. However, an isolated damaging wind gust or a brief tornado is possible.
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By 9PM, a broken line of showers and a few storms will enter the area. Instability is limited, so the overall threat is low. However, it is worth watching and since it is a nighttime risk I feel it is better to be prepared than to not be. With winds of 70+ MPH at 5,000 feet aloft it will not take much to force that down to the surface.
By 11PM the line is east of I-75 and we then await the big temperature drop. Winds will be on the increase as well as this line exits our area. We have a Wind Advisory in effect from 8PM tonight to 6PM Monday for the entire Miami Valley.
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By Monday morning, we are sharply colder, windy, and we may find a few snowflakes flying around! Gusts of 40-50 MPH are likely all day long. A few power outages and minor tree damage are also possible with gusts of that magnitude. Overall, slick spots should be limited to any spots where wind does not dry out the surfaces before we fall below freezing.
This will hurt a bit as well! Wind chills near zero are likely by mid-morning on Monday! This is pretty common of these intense systems to bring drastic swings in weather that make you swap wardrobes. Stay tuned through the day for more updates on air and online!
