DAYTON — Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Meteorologist Nick Dunn is checking in with you on a warm and windy day.
The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby, and Logan counties until 11 p.m.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Randolph County in Indiana until 12 a.m.
The sunshine is helping warm us up towards 80 degrees ahead of a potent cold front that will spark showers and storms. Some strong to severe storms remain possible.
A Level 3 of 5 (Enhanced) risk for severe storms continues for those near and north of I-70. Those across the far north (Celina to Bellefontaine) likely have the best chance of a tornado tonight, where storms work with better ingredients like instability and wind shear.
Eventually, cells congeal into lines or clusters and work southeast across the rest of the Miami Valley. That will lessen the tornado threat as wind and hail become the main drivers for severe weather.
Not everyone will see a severe storm, but those will see these storms pack a punch.
Damaging winds and large hail are the top two threats to be concerned about tonight.
Expect heavy rainfall to also be a concern, as storms may stall or train over the same areas repeatedly. The tornado threat overall is the lowest, but not zero. Have ways to get warnings with this being a nighttime risk.
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Storms look to come through in two waves. The first may arrive as early as 8 PM over our northwestern counties. This wave would carry the best chance of any tornadoes, with it being warmer and more unstable.
This will weaken a bit as it works south, with wind and hail becoming the more likely hazards.
As we get later into the evening, clusters of storms with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain will work through the Miami Valley. We cool down significantly, which helps to cut the tornado threat down.
The concern for the overnight is repeated rounds of heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding.
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Widespread 1-3″ of rain is likely across the entire area. The highest totals will be where clusters of storms repeat over the same areas. Flooding could become an issue, so we will watch that closely.
Stay tuned for the latest watches and warnings as we go through tonight. If you plan to go to bed, have something to wake you in the event a warning is issued for your area.