DAYTON — Good evening and Happy Father’s Day to the dads out there. Meteorologist Nick Dunn here with you, watching showers and storms that arrive tonight.
The threat of severe weather is low, but not zero. Let’s dive into the details.
The latest severe weather outlook shows a Level 1 to Level 2 risk for severe storms.
The highest risk shifted south as expected, where ingredients align a little better. We are likely to dodge a bullet from the worst of the activity.
However, an isolated severe storm with damaging winds or a quick tornado.
Overall, I think heavy rain is the biggest threat for tonight between 10 PM and 3 AM.
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Futurecast shows a few stronger embedded storms here, but again, I think the worst misses the Miami Valley.
A combination of limited warmth and limited instability should work in our favor, combined with the late arrival.
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There will likely be an axis of over one to two inches of rain somewhere in our area.
Each model handles that zone a little differently, which makes picking out an area a bit difficult.
On average, one-half to one and one-half inches of rain is possible, which can lead to minor flooding.