You may have noticed on your weather app or other forecast sources about the potential for a wintry mess in the coming days.
I decided to sort out the facts from the hype and give you the details.
Here are three things you should know about this coming week of weather.
1) There is the potential for light freezing rain, snow or freezing drizzle to develop late tonight and linger into early Tuesday. While temperatures may rise above freezing pretty quickly in the morning, the ground is very cold from temps that were so bitter over the weekend. It takes a bit longer for the ground to warm compared to air temps. Some light ice may impact the Tuesday morning commute. Use EXTREME caution. Conditions should quickly improve and look for mostly wet roads by lunchtime.
2) The much more complicated weather scenario is developing late Friday into Saturday. Right now we are expecting widespread rain to cross through the area during the day Friday. Late Friday night, colder air will begin to work in behind a storm system exiting to our northeast. Unfortunately, the cold front that moves into the area is expected to stall somewhere over the Miami Valley.
At this time, it is unclear where that will happen. If it stays to our north, we will not be as concerned. However if it comes south, we could have a very tricky and messy situation as we head late into Friday night and into Saturday. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along that front and send lots of moisture to "overrun" the front. The cold air will likely be very shallow, meaning the precipitation will fall as rain but freeze on contact with the ground. It will depend on how deep the cold air is as to whether precipitation will fall as freezing rain, sleet or even some snow. Ice accumulations could be significant if the front stalls just south of the Miami Valley. But that is a big IF. The graphic I have posted with this post is from the GFS model for total ice accumulation. It has widely varied over the last few days, but has been consistent on an ice threat in our region this weekend. I expect this will continue to fluctuate quite a bit the next few days.
3) Finally, what you should know is that we are still quite a few days away from this event and many things can change, as you know. This is not an excuse, but a fact that this is a complicated weather situation that everyone should monitor, especially if you have travel plans this weekend. Right now, the time period we are most concerned with is late Friday night and through the day Saturday. The event could last into Sunday before changing to rain. It is too early to tell on ice, snow or rain accumulations. It will likely be Thursday before the models have a good grasp of this event. Please make sure you monitor the latest forecasts over the coming days.
