breaking news

breaking news


Colder, snowier winter likely

Published: Monday, October 17, 2016 @ 6:14 PM
Updated: Tuesday, October 18, 2016 @ 8:45 AM

Chief Meteorologist Eric Elwell says La Nina will likely impact our weather pattern as we head into the coming winter. This will likely mean a colder, snowier winter than last year.

It may be hard to believe it with today’s weather, but we are only about 63 days away from the official start of winter.

Temperatures to start this week have been nearing 20 degrees above normal. In fact, it is quite rare for us to see temperatures in the 80s this late in the season. The latest date on record to hit 85 degrees or higher in Dayton was on Oct. 21, 1953. While it doesn’t look like we will break that record this year, our monthly average temperatures have been above normal for the last 5 months with one of the most humid summers on record.

As many of you know, we had forecast a warmer than average summer thanks to the development of a strong El Nino pattern. El Nino is a weather pattern that is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. But by late summer, the El Nino pattern ended with ocean waters cooling in this region. While this hasn’t meant much change in our weather pattern as of yet, it appears the development of La Nino, or cooler than average ocean water in the equatorial Pacific, could begin to show its influence in the coming months.

Computer model simulations that forecasters have been watching indicated a strong La Nina could develop by this winter. However, those models now have had some varying results making the forecast for the coming winter a bit trickier. So what do we know about the coming winter?

First, we will no longer have the influence of El Nino which kept temperatures above normal and snowfall below normal last winter. If La Nina does indeed develop, then it is likely after our currently dry fall, moisture may become more abundant as we head into winter. This could mean increases in either rainfall or snowfall compared to last winter.

Another area we will be watching closely is actually the ocean water temperatures off the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Currently, this area is seeing much warmer than average water temperatures. If this were to continue into the winter, this can force a stronger ridge in the jet stream across the western U.S. into western Canada. This ridge would translate into a trough, or depression in the jet stream across the eastern United States. This type of jet stream flow would likely lead to a colder, unsettled pattern for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Lake effect snow may also be more of a problem, especially the first half of the winter. The waters of the Great Lakes are quite warm after such a warm summer and fall. Depending on wind flow, this could increase our wintry weather.

The bottom line is that this winter will most certainly be more typical Ohio winter than what we saw last year. That means we can expect more snow and more cold. How bad this coming winter will be may be more of a matter of perspective than that of reality. While this past winter wasn’t too bad, many still haven’t forgotten the “polar vortex” winters of 2014 and 2015.

Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

Trending - Most Read Stories

Warmer temperatures return this week

Published: Sunday, June 24, 2018 @ 5:00 AM
Updated: Sunday, June 24, 2018 @ 11:05 AM

It’ll be a touch warmer as most of us get in the lower 80s. Partly cloudy skies are expected and while most will stay dry, a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out, said Storm Center 7 Meteorologist Brett Collar. 

>>WHIO Doppler 7 Interactive Radar

QUICK-LOOK FORECAST: 

  • Slight chance for a stray shower today 
  • Warmer temperatures return this week 
  • Rain returns Tuesday evening and Wednesday

>>Air Show forecast

Tonight: Decreasing clouds are expected overnight as temperatures drop into the lower to middle 60s. 

>>Moon and Jupiter close this weekend

Monday: Mostly sunny skies are expected, highs in the lower 80s.

Tuesday: A dry start is expected with highs in the middle 80s, chance for rain returns in the evening. 

>>Air Show Chance of Podcast

Wednesday: A few showers likely, maybe a few storms as well. Highs will be in the middle 80s. 

Thursday: A hot day expected with partly cloudy skies, highs in the upper 80s.

Trending - Most Read Stories

Warmer temperatures return next week

Published: Saturday, June 23, 2018 @ 5:36 AM
Updated: Saturday, June 23, 2018 @ 10:33 PM

Warmer temperatures return this week in the Dayton area.

Lingering clouds will make for a breezy day, but warmer temperatures will return next week, said Storm Center 7 Meteorologist Brett Collar. 

>>Dayton Air Show forecast

QUICK-LOOK FORECAST:

  • Stray shower this evening
  • Slight chance for rain Sunday
  • Warmer temperatures next week

>>WHIO Doppler 7 Interactive Radar

5 Day Forecast with Meteorologist McCall Vrydaghs

Tonight: A few more breaks in the clouds are expected overnight. Temperatures will drop into the middle 60s.

>>LISTEN: Dayton Air Show Chance of Podcast

Sunday: It’ll be a touch warmer as most of us get in the lower 80s. Partly cloudy skies are expected and while most will stay dry, a stray shower or storms cannot be ruled out.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies are expected. Highs will be in the lower 80s.

Tuesday: A dry start is expected with highs in the middle 80s. The chance for rain returns in the evening.

>>Moon and Jupiter close this weekend

Wednesday: A few showers are likely, maybe a few storms as well. Highs will be in the middle 80s.

Thursday: A hot day is expected with partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 80s.

Trending - Most Read Stories

Dayton Air Show forecast: Warmer Sunday with slight chance for rain

Published: Thursday, June 21, 2018 @ 5:47 AM
Updated: Saturday, June 23, 2018 @ 5:15 PM

Meteorologist Kirstie Zontini looks at the chance for showers and how warm it will get.

This year for the Vectren Dayton Air Show, the weather will try to cooperate, but it’s a good idea to be weather-aware, Storm Center 7 Meteorologist Kirstie Zontini said.

>> Storm Center 7’s Kirstie Zontini flies with U.S. Navy Blue Angels

The rain trickled at the beginning, but skies were clear as performers took to the sky.

>> Blue Angels thrill crowd with performance

For Sunday, it will be a touch warmer with most spots reaching the lower 80s.

Partly cloudy skies are expected, and while most stay dry, a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out, Storm Center 7 

>> Saturday highlights from the 2018 Vectren Dayton Air Show

Organizers say visibility and cloud levels determine the type of show pilots will perform. If there are low clouds, they may run a flat/low show, which will keep the planes closer to the ground so spectators can see them. If clouds are broken or clear, the planes can fly higher.

>> WHIO Doppler 7 Interactive Radar

Don’t forget to put on sunscreen, even with scattered clouds. Also stay hydrated, Zontini said. Thankfully the weekend will feel a little more comfortable than how it was at the beginning of the week.

Air show leaders said there’s little shade at the airport to protect you from the sun. 

>> Download our FREE weather app

There will be fountains for free water. If anyone does start to feel ill, they should go to one of the EMS tents or to one of the paramedics that will on bicycles.

Full coverage of the Dayton Air Show

>> How to avoid traffic and parking headaches at this weekend’s Dayton Air Show

>> Insider’s guide to the 2018 Dayton Air Show

>> Here’s how Dayton Air Show officials prepare for worst case scenarios

>> F-22 Raptor, Golden Knights to perform at 2018 Vectren Dayton Air Show

>> Blue Angels set to perform in Dayton: Five things to know

Trending - Most Read Stories

Isolated Strong Storms Today

Published: Saturday, June 16, 2018 @ 5:01 AM
Updated: Saturday, June 16, 2018 @ 4:56 PM

 More heat and humidity this weekend with the hottest temperatures in nearly five years by Sunday. More showers and storms likely for next week, said meteorologist McCall Vrydaghs.

>>WHIO Doppler 7 Interactive Radar 

QUICK-LOOK FORECAST:

  • Few isolated afternoon and evening storms today
  • Hottest temperatures in nearly five years by Sunday
  • Showers and storms more likely next week

>>5-day forecast

Today: A hot and humid afternoon with a few isolated storms possible. For those areas that develop storms, the potential for hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain is possible. Storms will be slow moving, so the potential for minor flooding exists. The rest of the area will be quite steamy with highs around 90 degrees and feeling like the lower to middle 90s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Drying out later tonight, but staying warm and muggy. Overnight lows around 70 degrees.

>>Venus visible after sunset

Sunday: Another hot and humid day with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s with a heat index approaching 100 degrees.

>>LISTEN: Cloudy with a Chance of Podcast: A podcast for weather fans

Monday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid again on Monday. Highs once again rise into the lower 90s with a heat index approaching 100 degrees. Chance for a pop-up shower or storm in the afternoon or evening. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers and storms. A very warm and muggy day with temperatures well into the upper 80s.

>>County-by-county weather 

Wednesday: A chance for showers and storms remains in the forecast with highs in the middle 80s.

Thursday: Warm and humid again with the chance of a few more showers or storms. Highs in the lower 80s.

Trending - Most Read Stories