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The Road to Election 2018 – primaries for Congress start today in Texas

Published: Tuesday, March 06, 2018 @ 1:53 AM

The road to the new Congress begins today in the state of Texas, where voters are going to the polls to cast ballots in the first 2018 primaries for the U.S. House and Senate which will be seated in 2019, as even before today, a number of lawmakers on Capitol Hill had opted to hang up their legislative cleats, and leave their jobs in the U.S. Capitol.

While no members of Congress Texas seem to have a life-or-death primary fight on their hands today, this voting is officially the beginning of what Democrats hope will result in enough wins to carry them back to majority status in at least the U.S. House, as they look to capitalize on their party’s backlash to President Donald Trump’s election in 2016.

The primary calendar starts today in Texas, and stretches into September, when New Hampshire and Rhode Island wrap up voting with their primaries for the Congress.

So, what might we see in the months ahead?

1. In Texas, some familiar warnings signs for GOP. We have seen it play out in a number of special elections for the U.S. House and Senate since Donald Trump became President – Democrats have had a big edge in enthusiasm about voting. That was true in a number of House races, and was certainly true as the Democrats won an upset in a Senate race in Alabama last December. So far in the Lone Star State, some of the same clues are appearing, as the Democrats are more excited about voting. Think back to the 2010 Tea Party wave, and it was the exact opposite back then, when GOP voters were the ones who would walk over broken glass to get to the polls.

2. Primaries usually don’t cause much turnover. While voters go to the polls today in Texas, it would be surprising for the voters to knock off incumbents from either party. In the last seven election years for the Congress, the average number of lawmakers who lose a primary is just five – and that’s skewed because of a large number – 13 – who lost in the 2010 Tea Party wave year. Much of what’s going on in Texas right now seems to be more about setting up races for November, rather than booting out someone who is already in office. And President Trump has been trying to convince GOP voters that is their best course as well.

3. Change in the House is already taking place. I know I sound like a broken record about this stuff, but there has been a rather constant turnover in Congress in recent years, which I think most people don’t think is happening. As of today, 52 House members won’t be back in January of 2019 – that’s already a 12 percent turnover in the House, and this is the first day of primary voting. The House is averaging a 14 percent turnover since 2004 – that’s a lot of new people and a lot of new faces cycling in and out of the Congress on a regular basis. And right now, Democrats think they will be able to defeat a number of GOP lawmakers in November to increase those turnover numbers even more. Here is my current breakdown of where we stand in terms of change in the Congress:

4. Some key special elections also on the horizon. The Texas primaries are just a palate cleanser for the big battle that will take place next week in Pennsylvania, with a special election for a U.S. House seat that was held by the GOP. Recent polls have shown a very tight race – and that enthusiasm gap as discussed above – could play a big role in the outcome of this race in the 18th district of Pennsylvania. President Trump will hold a rally in the Pittsburgh area on Saturday, a reminder of just how important these elections are for his administration. The GOP candidate there is not running away from him, but the Democrat seems to have a lot of momentum. That’s next week.

5. Senate turnover much smaller – for now. If you notice one thing from the graphic above, while the House is already assured of a number of new faces in 2019, that’s not guaranteed for the Senate, where only three Senators have decided not to run for re-election. There was news about change on Monday, as veteran Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) announced that he would resign in coming weeks, because of health problems that have obviously plagued him in recent months. That will set up dual Senate races in two states this year – Minnesota and Mississippi – where voters will vote for both a full 6-year Senate term, and then for someone to fill out the rest of an unexpired term. If there is going to be change in the Senate, it will most likely come in November.

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Gulf grows between Trump and Congress on trade

Published: Saturday, June 23, 2018 @ 5:15 AM

As President Donald Trump this week threatened $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports, and then warned Europe that he would slap a 20 percent tariff on imported automobiles, members of both parties Congress accused the administration of starting a trade war which could cause collateral economic damage across the United States.

The differences were on display at a hearing Wednesday with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who took a bipartisan tongue lashing on a recent round of tariffs levied on imported steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico and Europe.

“We’re picking winners and losers,” argued Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who said those tariffs were already hurting businesses in his home state.

“Probably resulting – in my view – in far more jobs being lost than being gained,” Toomey told Ross, citing a very well-known Pennsylvania company that could find it less expensive to move jobs from the U.S. to Canada.

Almost every Senator on the panel had a story of a small business that was feeling the pinch due to Trump Administration tariffs, impacting all sorts of agricultural products, as well as manufacturing, big and small.

“Do you think we’re in a trade war right now?” asked Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA). “Because I do,” as Cantwell rattled off farm products that were losing markets because of retaliatory tariff measures.

Ross downplayed the cost of higher imported steel and aluminum, basically making the case that economic hardships were being overplayed.

“It’s a fraction of a penny on a can of Campbell’s soup, it’s a fraction on a can of Budweiser, it’s a fraction on a can of Coke,” Ross said.

That did not please the Senator from the state of Coca-Cola.

“Although a couple of pennies on a can is not much, a couple pennies times a billion is lots,” said Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA).

“We’re hit harder than any other state by the Canadian retaliatory tariffs,” said Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), warning the Trump Administration against tariffs on imported automobiles, as GOP Senators labeled such actions a tax on consumers.

“Steel prices are going up – not just for foreign steel subject to tariffs, but also for U.S. steel,” complained Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT).

“Mexico’s buying their wheat from Argentina and their corn from Brazil,” said Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), as he told Ross that Kansas wheat exports were encountering troubles because of new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, bringing bad economic news on the farm report.

Ross simply told Senators if other countries put new tariffs on U.S. exports, that was out of his control.

“We have no control over what another country does in retaliation,” Ross said.

The bipartisan complaints clearly had no impact, as by Friday, President Trump was on Twitter, issuing new threats against European auto imports.

As Democrats registered their opposition, they also couldn’t help but note the oddity of a Republican President going against what’s been a bedrock belief of the GOP.

“I feel like I’ve gone down a rabbit hole,” said Sen. Clare McCaskill (D-MO), who said she found it hard to believe the party of free trade now had a President in office who was doing the exact opposite.

“In a chaotic and frankly incompetent manner, you’re picking winners and losers,” McCaskill told Ross.

But for the President, this is about re-setting trade deals, which he says were tilted against the United States.

“As far as trade is concerned with other countries, we want fair and reciprocal trade, we don’t want stupid trade like we had for so long,” the President said at a rally in Minnesota.

“Remember the world reciprocal,” Mr. Trump said. “We have been ripped off by almost every country on Earth, our friends and our enemies.”

“But those days are over,” the President said to cheers from the crowd.

But while they’re cheering Mr. Trump on the stump, at the U.S. Capitol, they’re worried about a trade war.

“We’re getting into a war that’s going to cost lots of billions of dollars,” Isakson warned.

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House approves big, bipartisan bill to deal with opioid crisis

Published: Friday, June 22, 2018 @ 1:25 PM

In a fresh reminder that political cooperation is not dead on Capitol Hill, the House on Friday overwhelmingly approved a sweeping package of over fifty bipartisan bills to address the misuse of prescription opioid pain medicine, as lawmakers voted to expand a variety of services under Medicare and Medicaid to deal with the drug scourge.

“We can do things when we put partisan politics aside and work together,” said Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), one of a number of lawmakers who touted various provisions in the sweeping opioids measure.

“This particular bill, H.R. 6, is the crown jewel of all that legislation,” said Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX).

“This legislation will strengthen our efforts to advance treatment and recovery issues, and bolster the fight against deadly and illicit drugs,” said Rep. Rick Allen (R-GA).

“This is a big deal in the fight against the largest public health crisis in our country,” said Speaker Paul Ryan.

“Mr. Speaker, so often we hear about the partisan wrangling in Congress and clearly there are dividing lines on some high-profile issues,” said Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA). “But this an issue where Republicans and Democrats have come together.”

The final vote was 396-14. The bill now goes to the Senate.

“Currently, Medicare doesn’t cover opioid treatment programs,” said Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA). “These bills are pieces of a large, complex puzzle. We need to find realistic solutions with long term outcomes.”

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Trump: GOP should give up on immigration until after 2018 elections

Published: Friday, June 22, 2018 @ 7:29 AM

A day after Republicans in the House defeated one more conservative immigration reform plan, and delayed action until next week on a second bill because of a lack of GOP votes, President Donald Trump on Friday suggested a different avenue entirely – urging Republicans in Congress to drop the issue until after the November elections.

“Republicans should stop wasting their time on Immigration until after we elect more Senators and Congressmen/women in November,” the President tweeted early on Friday morning, saying the answer was simple – get more GOP lawmakers in the 2018 mid-term elections.

“Elect more Republicans in November and we will pass the finest, fairest and most comprehensive Immigration Bills anywhere in the world,” Mr. Trump pledged, as he blamed Democrats and the Senate rules, which would force him to get 60 votes to do what he wants on immigration.

Mr. Trump’s suggestion came as GOP leaders were still looking for a magic legislative formula on immigration reform, as the issue has divided Republicans in both the House and Senate.

The suggestion by the President that immigration efforts are a waste of time came as Republicans were trying to fine tune a second immigration bill in the House, with hopes of approving that next week, before lawmakers go home for a July Fourth break.

Many GOP lawmakers had been hoping that the President instead would come out very publicly in favor of those efforts, and help convince some reluctant House Republicans to get on board, and vote for the plan, despite misgivings about certain provisions.

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House defeats one GOP immigration bill, delays vote on second plan

Published: Thursday, June 21, 2018 @ 3:04 PM

Struggling to find consensus on immigration reform, the House on Thursday rejected a more conservative Republican immigration reform bill, and then in a bid to salvage the effort, GOP leaders delayed action on a second immigration reform measure until Friday.

41 House Republicans voted against the first GOP bill, which was defeated on a vote of 231-193, as the plan received more votes than most GOP lawmakers had expected.

The Republicans who voted against the first GOP bill were a mixture of the Republican Party’s different flanks, featuring more conservative lawmakers who wanted to do more, and moderates who felt it went too far.

“This is a difficult issue,” said Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC), who voted for this bill, but wouldn’t tell reporters whether he would support a second measure on Friday.

“Any jot or tittle one way or the other, you lose people because of the complexities, because of the sensitivities, and the emotions in this particular piece of legislation,” Meadows said.

Here is the list of the 41 Republicans who voted “No.”

One of the reasons more moderate Republicans voted against the first bill was because of the lack of a path to citizenship for younger illegal immigrant “Dreamers,” who were brought to the U.S. by their parents.

While that is in the bill to be voted on Friday, those provisions then could cause some other Republicans to vote against it, arguing it is nothing but amnesty.

“I’m a big fat no, capital letters” said Rep. Lou Barletta (R-PA), after the first vote.

“It doesn’t do anything to stop illegal immigration,” Barletta added.

In debate on the House floor, Democrats focused mainly on the more recent immigration battle over the separation of illegal immigrant families, blaming President Donald Trump for doing little to seek compromise.

“On this issue, God is going to judge you as well,” said Rep. Michael Capuano (D-MA) said to Republicans who were backing the President’s get-tough effort on the border.

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