Posted: 2:59 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4, 2013
It finally happened. A losing week. While the Ags are at home resting, nursing a few injuries, the college football world plays on. We're still waiting on the dogs to truly start barking, and some are wondering if this is shaping up to be a repeat of 2011, when betting the AP Top 10 week in and week out was a massively profitable strategy. Let's get ready to spend a full Saturday parked in front of the TV kissing our cash goodbye.
WEEK FIVE IN REVIEW
Bear Bryant said a tie was like kissing your sister, and while we have no experience with such Leia-on-Luke action - let's ask our friends in Arkansas about that - I'm inclined to agree. Two pushes on our big five plays moved us into the red for the week.
Wazzu +10 vs Stanford (-77 GBHs) Leach's Cougars fought hard, but Stanford's line play on both sides of the ball simply wore down the group from Pullman. Not anywhere close to a cover for the Cougs. Stanford may be the most physical team this side of Bama. Nerds. Credit David Shaw for having his team prepared for the sandwich game between two marquee protests.
Kentucky +13 vs Florida (-77 GBHs) The line closed as tight as 11, and when you beat the closing number by as much as two points, you can cash a lot of tickets long term. Alas, this wasn't one of those occasions. Don't look now, but the Gators are establishing a run game, Murphy might be an upgrade from Driskel, and Muschamp's defense may be the best in college football.
West Virginia +19 vs Oklahoma State (70 GBHs) Sometimes the market and message board chatter tells you all you need to know. The bet distribution, line movement, and Joe Sixpack drool on this game set off warning bells, and sure enough, the Mountaineers not only covered, but won outright. Some suggest when picking an underdog to cover that you should "sprinkle a little on the moneyline" for the outright upset. Would have paid handsomely here.
Georgia -3 vs LSU (0 GBHs) The first of two pushes on the day. We were right on the LSU defense being a problem, but the Georgia defense continues to have issues, too.
Ohio State -7 vs Wisconsin (0 GBHs) Another game, another push. The Buckeyes went up 31-14 only to see Bucky come storming back, sealing the push with a last minute FG. I'll still take Urban at home every week in a big game.
Washington -10 vs Arizona (+20 GBHs) The Huskies continue to roll. DeRuyter was right. Hindsight should have swapped this play with Wazzu.
USC +6 at Arizona State (-22 GBHs) LOLane Kiffin. Hopped off a plane at LAX and got a pink slip in his hand...
Cal at Oregon OVER 84 (-22 GBHs) Rain can't stop the US Mail (pension and healthcare obligations can, however), but it can stop an over. Check the weather when doing your 'capping.
Licking our wounds, we dropped 108 GBHs on the week. The juice and the pushes just kill ya, don't they? The public continues to win, so we'll keep looking for improperly valued teams, ideally on the road.
Current Bankroll: 10324 GBHs
THE GAME GT +6 at Miami
The Hurricanes are the Joe Sixpack favorite of the week, everyone remembering Miami's win over Florida and last Thursday's Yellowjacket defeat to the Hokies (who have a really, really good defense, in case you haven't noticed). We'll take cussin' Paul Johnson on the road against an overvalued undefeated Miami team.
THE BET GT +6 (66 GBHs to win 60)
THE GAME Georgia -10.5 at Tennessee
Another "free money" public favorite bolstered by recency bias, this time with the Bulldogs going on the road after showing their strength in a home win over LSU. While UT struggled to get by [checks cupcake catalog] South Alabama. UGA is dinged up a bit and UT can move the ball on the Dawg defense.
THE BET Tennessee +10.5 (66 GBHs to win 60)
THE GAME Ole Miss -3 at Auburn
Going to bank on a few factors here. One, this is arguably the biggest winnable home game left for Gus's group. Two, continue to expect Auburn to improve in year one. And three, there's a trend of teams underachieving a bit in weeks after playing Alabama. Add it all up and we're set to fade another public road favorite.
THE BET Auburn +3 (66 GBHs to win 60)
THE GAME Mizzou +1 at Vandy
You may have missed it since they haven't exactly had many marquee games, but a healthy Mizzou team looks far more like the cohesive group of 2011 than the injury ravaged squad that laid an egg in 2012. Vandy can't keep up with the Tiger offense.
THE BET Mizzou +1 (66 GBHs to win 60)
THE GAME Arizona State -6 at Notre Dame
Not all road favorites are losers. Tommy Rees is Tommy Rees, which is to say he's a QB helming an offense that turns the ball over and can't score consistently. That's problematic when mercenary Todd Graham's group is hitting its stride in year two and can drop a 21 spot on ya in a quarter without breaking a sweat. ASU's already seen better teams - Stanford, USC, Wisconsin - than this ND group.
THE BET Arizona State -6 (66 GBHs to win 60)