Posted: 4:20 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 26, 2013
Four weeks down, and four weeks of winning. This will change shortly, but let's enjoy it while it lasts and manage our bankroll appropriately, OK? We're entering conference play, so the numbers tighten up and strong handicapping and history matter. The good news is, if nothing else, we should finally have some good games to enjoy and won't be glued to the TV wondering if a team's third stringers can keep the margin above 35.
WEEK FOUR IN REVIEW
Week four didn't have an overarching lesson, other than "ACC football is boring, even when you bet on it." Chalk dominated the college weekend, with favorites covering 63% of the spreads and 55 of 57 favorites winning outright.
Clemson -13.5 at NC State (-55 GBHs) A most unpleasant backdoor cover. Down 19 points in the fourth quarter, NC State proceeded to go on a seven and a half minute, 23 play touchdown drive during which they converted two 4th and 6's and two 4th and 10's. End result? A loss on our card. Brutal.
UNC +6.5 at Georgia Tech (-55 GBHs) The Tarheels raced to a 20-7 lead and we were feelin' good. Then the undersized, undermanned group of Heels proceeded to do nothing right en route to losing 28-20. UNC may be a team to fade in second halves in spots later this season.
Rutgers PK vs. Arkansas (+50 GBHs) Our capping was good here. Early turnovers and a gadget play spotted Arkansas a lead, but Rutgers and Gary Nova were far and away the stronger group down the stretch. Arkansas can't do much effectively with Derby at QB.
Stanford -7 vs. Arizona State (+50 GBHs) A mild risk of a backdoor cover here, as Stanford raced to a huge lead only to lose focus and let Arizona State come storming back in the second half. If Stanford has a weakness, it's in the secondary. Let's remember that, shall we?
Auburn +17.5 at LSU (+50 GBHs) The backdoor taketh away, but the backoor also giveth. At least that's what the dudes in prison like to say. LSU raced out to a 21-0 lead before Auburn got their footing and made you raise your eyebrow in interest at a few points in the second half. While much of it was yielded when the game was reasonably in hand, LSU's young defense yielded almost 500 yards to the War Eagles.
Mizzou at Indiana OVER 71.5 (+20 GBHs) Slow pace early, but picked up as the game wore on. Mizzou's offense is finding its stride with a healthy OL and DGB coming into his own.
SMU at A&M; OVER 78 (-22 GBHs) Snyder seems to be putting the right pieces in place on defense, but let's face it, this number was dead the moment Sumlin pulled Johnny after just one second half drive.
USC -6.5 vs Utah State (-22 GBHs) You live to fight another day, Kiffin. Barely. And we saw the death of the Chuckie Keaton for Heisman! bandwagon, tiny though it was.
Adding up the numbers, we added an oh-so-modest 16 GBHs to our bankroll. But still feels better than losing, right? AND DAMNIT CLEMSON DEFENSE LEARN TO MAKE A FRIGGIN' STOP ON FOURTH DOWN!!! There. I feel better.
The public has won so far this season, so we'll be taking a closer look at dogs and contrarian plays as we press on into the meat of the season.
Current Bankroll: 10432 GBHs
THE GAME Stanford -10 at Washington State
After last week's first half, everyone is in love with Stanford. But that Wazzu win at the Coliseum is looking less and less like a fluke. Leach's offense is starting to click and the defense plays mean. Stanford is the better team, but this is a classic trap game, a neutral site contest with a road date at Washington next up on the Cardinal's schedule.
THE BET Washington State +10 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Florida -13 at Kentucky
Florida with their second team QB on the road, and now down a leader of their defense. Is Kentucky any good? No, but they play hard under Stoops. And in what will be a theme for this week, the betting public has been all over the Gators on the road while the line has moved off of 14 and down as low as 12.5 in spots. Florida wins, but it's ugly.
THE BET Kentucky +13 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Oklahoma State -19 at West Virginia
Sets up as another contrarian play. Fresh on everyone's mind is the WVU disaster vs. Maryland, but they're forgetting the close game in Norman. And oh yea, the oSu offense is a derivative of what Holgorsen runs. The Mountaineers see the same X's and O's every day in practice. The line opened at 21 and despite everyone you know* taking the Cowboys, has dipped as low as 18. (* the same people that would also blindly take oSu -23 in the same spot.)
THE BET West Virginia +19 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Georgia -3 vs. LSU
The public is all over a road dog here - always a warning sign - but the line has held steady. Georgia's strength is unquestionably their offense, and while everyone is ogling the sudden transformation of Zach Mettenberger, I'm not yet sold on the Tiger defense being the same ol' Tiger defense. Expect an up tempo attack from UGA to surprisingly keep LSU on their heels.
THE BET Georgia -3 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Ohio State -7 vs. Wisconsin
Not sold at all on Wisconsin's secondary or their ability to throw the ball and keep defenses honest. No fishy line movement or unbalanced betting action here. Just the better team at home in a big game at night.
THE BET Ohio State -7 (77 GBHs to win 70)