Posted: 9:00 a.m. Friday, Oct. 11, 2013
Last week: 7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the spread
Season: 52-5 straight up, 29-18-1 against the spread
As always, the lines come from the Yahoo! pick 'em game except where noted.
Missouri (+7.5) over Georgia 40-35
Basically no one remembers this, but Missouri played Georgia to a draw through three quarters last year. The Tigers led for a lot of the second and third quarters even, but then Jarvis Jones took over the game in the fourth.
Well, Jones is gone. So are the team's top three receivers and one, if not both, of its top rushers. Its defense has been a disaster against good offenses, and Todd Grantham already has a history of bad games against mobile QBs. Enter Mizzou, with a fully stocked and dynamic offense and a quarterback who can move. The Mizzou defense isn't as good as last year's unit either without Sheldon "Old Man Football" Richardson, but it hasn't fallen as far. It shouldn't mean as much as it otherwise would with all of the injuries on Georgia's side, but here is where MU gets its first signature SEC win.
Then again, see that five in the loss column for the season in straight up picks? Two of those were me picking against UGA (South Carolina and LSU). So take this with as much salt as required.
South Carolina (-6) over Arkansas 36-20
As long as the Gamecocks keep track of Alex Collins, they'll be fine. They won't for the duration, but they'll do it enough to keep on truckin'.
Florida (+7) over LSU 23-20
I have too much to say about this game to fit it here, but I am calling for the upset.
Alabama (-27.5) over Kentucky 32-6
UK has been feisty at home, covering a couple of big lines against Louisville and Florida. Bama is a more complete team than either of those two, but this line is bigger to compensate. I'm going to guess that disinterest in a less than exciting road environment will keep the Tide from quite covering in this one.
Mississippi State (-10.5) over Bowling Green 34-13
Bowling Green lost on the road at Indiana by more than 11 points. If Mississippi State has trouble covering this line, even given any lingering disappointment leftover from the LSU loss, there are bigger problems in Starkville than I thought.
Texas A&M; (-6) over Ole Miss 42-38
The Rebels may have disappointed in their last two games, but the A&M; defense cures what ails ya. I am following Ty's rule about taking the points in a shootout here, but I could see the Aggies running away with this if Ole Miss can't snap out of its funk.
Auburn over Western Carolina 66-23