Posted: 5:41 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4, 2013
I feel like I started this a week too late, because last week there was money to be made all over the place. I hope you all took advantage. Vegas wasn't as kind this weekend, throwing out some lines that make you say "huh?" and a whole bunch that make you say "hmmm." But let's see if we can't make some money anyway.
DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BET THE MORTAGE, THE CAR OR YOUR FIRST-BORN CHILD. DO NOT BET TO "MAKE MONEY." BET ENOUGH THAT YOU CAN STILL HAVE FUN. DON'T BE STUPID. THANK YOU.
This line opened at 10.5 and, surprisingly, didn't move as much throughout the week as one would expect. Georgia has played and Tennessee has looked awful since beating Western Kentucky in Week 2. Georgia's defense still has some question marks, especially against the pass, but the Bulldogs played well against the run last against LSU and running back Jeremy Hill. Tennessee has one of the best offensive lines in the country, but no quarterback, running back or playmakers on the outside to take advantage. Don't be surprised if Tennessee keeps this one close early with the help of a big-game hangover from Georgia, but don't expect it to last long. Aaron Murray and the Dawgs will find their footing against a less-than-stellar Tennessee defense and win this one going away. The Pick: Georgia 42, Tennessee 17 (Georgia -11.5)
Arizona State is coming off a complete annihilation of USC, which turned out to be the final nail if Lane Kiffin's already half-buried coffin. Notre Dame is coming off a 14-point home loss to Oklahoma in which the Irish didn't perform well on either side of the ball. This line seems a little low and makes you wonder why Arizona State is less than a touchdown. Notre Dame has struggled to score the ball all year and struggled to stop an explosive offense in Oklahoma last week. Arizona State has shown no problem scoring the ball, although the Sun evils have struggled to stop opposing offenses. This game will probably be close going into half but I don't think Tommy Rees and company can keep pace with the explosive Sun Devil offense. Arizona State reeled off 28 straight points against USC last week. Don't expect an explosion of that magnitude, but look for the Sun Devils to pull away in the second half. The Pick: Arizona State 38, Notre Dame 21 (ASU -6)
If y'all remember, which you probably don't, I picked Washington to win straight up as a 7-point home dog against Stanford last year, and the Huskies came out with a 17-13 win. What can I say, I get lucky sometimes. This year, Stanford is once again a touchdown favorite, this time at home. Washington is a much improved team, especially along the offensive front, which got manhandled by Stanford last year. Stanford, however, has also improved and is square in the national title hunt. The Cardinal won't take the Huskies lightly this year and will come out ready to play at home. Washington may be improved but I just don't think the Huskies quite have what it takes to go into Palo Alto and hang with Stanford for four quarters. A couple costly turnovers and Stanford's physical play is the difference in the PAC-12 clash. The Pick: Stanford 31, Washington 17 (Stanford -6.5 -- buy .5)
TAKE GEORGIA STATE ON THE MONEY LINE WAR DAMN EAGLE!!!!!11!!
Just kidding, but I seriously do like Georgia State to cover the near eight-touchdown spread. Alabama is 3-11 under COACH Nick Saban when laying 30-plus points, including an ATS loss against Colorado State in Week 4. It's not worth laying a ton of money, but it's worth throwing something down. Saban just doesn't run up the score too much and sits his starters as early and often as possible against inferior competition. And as much as I hate to bring it up, everything surrounding the team off the field this week could possibly be a bit a distraction, but that's about as cliche as it gets. The Pick: Alabama 45, Georgia State 7 (GSU +54)