Posted: 3:31 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2013
By Brian Favat
USA Today's Jeff Sagarin ranks all 251 Division I-A college football teams on a weekly basis. His ratings, which are part of the computer ranking portion of the BCS formula, can be used to predict the rest of the season based on the results through three weeks. Using Sagarin's predictor, we can take a look at what Boston College's year-end record projection.
But first, where does BC rank this week?
90. Boston College Eagles [66.00]
Woo boy! Despite getting off to a 2-1 start, the Eagles currently rank towards the bottom of the BCS. BC's current Sagarin rating places the Eagles 13th in the ACC, ahead of only Wake Forest (101st). There are five I-AA programs currently ranked ahead of BC -- North Dakota State (51), Towson (70), Montana (79), Northern Iowa (81) and Eastern Washington (83) -- and just two Power Five conference teams below them -- Purdue (93) and Wake Forest (101).
As for the rest of the season, Sagarin uses a home advantage when projecting out winners, giving home teams a 5.04 point edge this week. When applying this home edge to the rest of the season, here is where the Eagles project out:
W - Boston College 24, Villanova 14
W - Boston College 24, Wake Forest 10
L - USC 35, Boston College 7
L - Florida State by 15.37 ((86.40 - (66.00 + 5.04)
W - Boston College beats Army by 12.96 ((66.00 + 5.04) - 58.08)
L - Clemson by 22.99 ((83.95 + 5.04) - 66.00)
L - North Carolina by 13.85 ((74.81 + 5.04) - 66.00)
L - Virginia Tech by 7.27 (78.31 - (66.00 + 5.04))
W - Boston College beats N.M. State by 13.17 (66.00 - (47.79 + 5.04))
L - N.C. State by 0.33 (71.37 - (66.00 + 5.04))
L - Maryland by 13.66 ((74.62 + 5.04) - 66.00)
L - Syracuse by 9.96 ((70.92 + 5.04) - 66.00)
A record of 4-8 with that N.C. State home game more or less a toss up right now sounds reasonable, actually. I think most fans are still optimistic that BC can get to six wins and make a return to a bowl game at this point. The next few games, however, are going to be painful.
The biggest surprise to me is the Syracuse prediction. A lot of ACC teams towards the bottom half of the league table would be 1-2 at this point in the season playing the Orange's schedule, but Syracuse really hasn't shown me much of anything on either side of the ball in games NOT against Wagner (which, always good for a stat boost). Maybe Terrel Hunt, who's getting the start over Drew Allen against Tulane, is the answer for Syracuse and the Orange will turn things around. At this point though, I remain skeptical.
The Maryland prediction is also a bit surprising. The Terps have rolled through the first three games of the season but have been largely untested. Maryland's schedule currently ranks as the 164th best in the country after dispatching Florida International (175), Old Dominion (125) and Connecticut (86). West Virginia (53) should prove an adequate test as to how good the Terps really are this season. Maryland is currently a 5 1/2 point favorite going into this weekend's game against the Mountaineers.
Virginia Tech by 7.27 would be a little more surprising if not for the fact that the Hokies offense is abysmal. Sample size, playing against the Alabama D and all, but the Hokies (108th) are right there with Wake Forest (109), Boston College (115) and Virginia (121) in terms of total offense through 1/4 of the season.
The good news? Games aren't played on paper. Then again, Vegas knows all.