Posted: 12:04 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2013
By David Coleman
With as many prospect-heads as we have around here, I assume the answer is easy, right? But, looking at the two teams' present, it may not be so cut and dried.
Houston has a pair of foundational players in Jose Altuve and Jason Castro, with a host of promising rookies and minor league talent. The Marlins don't have nearly as much minor league talent, but they do have two MVP-type players in Giancarlo Stanton and sensational rookie Jose Fernandez. Plus, they've got two pretty high ceiling rookies in Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick who just made it to the majors.
Lets say that all four of those guys play like above average regulars for the next five years. Can Houston match that? Add in Miami possibly getting Carlos Rodon next June and suddenly, they have a stellar top of the rotation.
Houston has much, much more depth in the minors, but how many of those guys will turn into above average regulars? We assume guys like Jonathan Singleton, George Springer and Carlos Correa are locks, but injuries, bad luck and poor adjustments can end those chances quickly. What if simple attrition reduces how many of those depth guys become impact players? Will Houston have four, maybe five impact guys in the next year?
That's the big unknown with this rebuild and why the question is pertinent. Would you rather less sure things or more potential, unknown talent?
Two years from now, this may not be a conversation. Miami may trade Stanton, Fernandez may get hurt and Yelich/Marisnick may not pan out. Three months ago, this also many not have been worth talking about. But, right now?
I think it's a toss up.